Viet Nam’s fourth-quarter growth to hit 7.2%: UOB
VGP - The United Overseas Bank (UOB) projected Viet Nam’s fourth-quarter growth at 7.2 percent on-year, following a strong 8.23 per cent rise in the third quarter, the highest since the post-COVID rebound, in its report released on December 22.
According to the bank, resilient exports and production helped sustain growth despite headwinds from U.S. tariffs.
In the first 10 months of the year, Viet Nam's exports surged 16.8 percent on-year. One key driver was shipments to the U.S., which jumped by 28.1 percent on-year during the same period (24.3 percent last year), after the U.S. reciprocal tariff rates were dialed back to a base rate of 10 percent globally.
Manufacturing saw a broad-based increase in tandem, increasing 10.8 percent on-year in the first nine months, a faster pace compared to the 9.4 percent rise in the same period in 2024.
With four consecutive months of above-50 readings, Viet Nam's Purchasing Managers' Index suggests that the outlook for the manufacturing sector remains positive.
The bank highlighted that foreign investment into Viet Nam has continued to gain traction, supported by investor confidence in the outlook for the country and ASEAN.
As supply chain realignments persist, realized foreign investment recorded US$21.3 billion in the first 10 months, well above our expectations of US$20 billion for the full year and US$19.6 billion in the same period in 2024.
The pipeline remains strong, as indicated by registered overseas funding which jumped 15 percent on-year to US$31.5 billion, from US$27.3 billion in the same period last year.
Domestic sentiment is similarly upbeat, with retail sales expanding at an average 9.8 percent on-year in the first 10 months, ahead of the 8.6 percent pace in 2024. This comes on the back of rising inbound visitors.
In the first 10 months, visitor arrivals surged by more than 21 percent on-year to 17.2 million, from more than 14.1 million in the same period last year.
Based on the current momentum, 2025 is on track to exceed the record 18 million visitors in 2019 and will be an added catalyst for domestic spending.
With real GDP expanding by a robust 7.85 per cent on-year in the first three quarters, Viet Nam's outlook remains positive for 2026, UOB reported.
For 2026, Viet Nam's growth pace could moderate slightly to 7 percent due to base effects and dissipation of front-loading, UOB anticipated./.
