UOB revises up Viet Nam’s GDP growth forecast to 7.5% this year
VGP - Singapore’s United Overseas Bank (UOB) has raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Viet Nam to 7.5 percent from 6.9 percent in its Global Economics & Markets Research unit.
Viet Nam's GDP expanded 7.52 percent in the first half from a year earlier, marking the quickest January-June pace since 2011. The Government is targeting GDP growth of 8.3 percent–8.5 percent this year.
For 2026, UOB maintained its growth forecast at 7 percent.
The robust first-half results were propelled primarily by a 14 percent year-on-year surge in exports, bolstered by improved market sentiment following U.S. President Donald Trump's temporary reduction of reciprocal tariffs to a baseline 10 percent rate for trading partners over 90 days.
While tariff pressures remain, UOB expects Viet Nam's exports to grow about 10 percent in 2025.
Other indicators further highlighted the economy's resilience. Viet Nam's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rebounded to 52.4 in July after three consecutive months below the 50-point contraction threshold. Industrial output rose 9 percent year-on-year.
Realized FDI reached US$13.6 billion as of July, up from US$12.6 billion a year earlier, suggesting full-year disbursed volume could surpass US$20 billion compared with US$25.4 billion in 2024.
Amid external headwinds, Viet Nam unveiled a US$48 billion infrastructure investment plan covering 250 projects in mid-August. The Government will finance 129 projects worth US$18 billion, focusing on urban development and transport. The remaining 121 projects, valued at US$30.5 billion, will draw on other sources, including foreign companies./.
