Resolution No.10 shifts Viet Nam’s FDI strategy from quantity to quality: HSBC

In his recent interview with VGP, Barnsley noted that over four decades of Doi Moi, Viet Nam has successfully leveraged foreign investment and exports to transform its economy. That approach delivered remarkable results, with the foreign-invested sector now accounting for around three-quarters of the country's export value.

In 2025 alone, disbursed FDI reached a five-year high of US$27.6 billion, while total trade climbed to a record US$928 billion, up 18 percent year-on-year, according to HSBC research.

To avoid the middle-income trap, Viet Nam now needs to capture more value domestically rather than remain primarily an assembly hub. Resolution No. 10 therefore changes the central question from "how much" FDI Viet Nam attracts to "how good" that investment is.

Barnsley emphasised that the Resolution sets concrete targets for 2030, including attracting US$200–300 billion in registered FDI, with 75 percent coming from developed economies; increasing the number of Fortune 500 investors by 30 percent; attracting at least three global technology corporations to establish research and development centers in Viet Nam; and integrating 10,000 domestic enterprises into multinational supply chains, raising localization rates in key industries to 45–50 percent.

He attributed the policy shift to three major trends. Viet Nam needs to fully capitalize on its demographic dividend over the next two decades by developing a higher value-added economy similar to those of Korea, Taiwan (China), Japan and China.

At the same time, global supply chains are being reconfigured as multinational companies diversify production across regions and seek reliable business ecosystems and institutions. In addition, the rapid development of artificial intelligence is reshaping industries and forcing countries to redefine their competitive advantages.

Barnsley said international investors closely monitor policy signals, noting that the Resolution's recognition of the foreign-invested sector as an inseparable part of the national economy sends a positive message. In his view, investment capital follows credibility, and credibility is built on consistent competitive advantages.

Keys for ensuring successful implementation of Resolution No. 10

Regarding the role of green finance in enhancing sustainable FDIs in Viet Nam, the HSBC specialist said, sustainability is embedded at the core of Resolution No. 10 rather than being treated as a separate objective.

He noted that the Resolution incorporates green transformation and eco-industrial park models into FDI selection criteria, aligning with Viet Nam's commitment to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and the implementation of Power Development Plan VIII, which requires more than US$134 billion in investment in power generation and transmission by 2030.

Viet Nam has already made notable progress in the green transition. Renewable energy accounted for 27.9 percent of installed power capacity in 2025, while electric vehicles represented around 40 percent of new car sales—the highest share in ASEAN.

At the same time, new-generation FDI increasingly comes with stringent environmental, social and governance (ESG) requirements, including emissions targets, carbon traceability and transparent environmental reporting.

Barnsley stressed that scaling up green finance requires credible frameworks, verified use of proceeds and compliance with international standards, adding that international financial institutions such as HSBC can play an important role by connecting global capital with sustainable investment opportunities in the country.

He highlighted HSBC's longstanding involvement in sustainable finance, including arranging Viet Nam's first green loan to finance a bottle-to-bottle recycling plant, supporting green building developments, and launching a clean energy fund to facilitate green trade and investment in sectors such as solar power, battery technology, electric vehicles and grid infrastructure.

Looking ahead, Barnsley identified three priorities for ensuring the successful implementation of Resolution No. 10.

The first is effective institutional execution. He said pioneering regulatory frameworks for international financial centers, free trade zones and high-tech parks need to move quickly from policy to implementation.

The second priority is developing a more advanced workforce. While praising the quality of Viet Nam's labor force, Barnsley said the country must continue upgrading skills to match increasingly sophisticated FDI.

The Resolution's target of attracting global R&D centers will depend on the availability of highly skilled local engineers and researchers. Workforce development should ideally stay ahead of investor demand through stronger collaboration among businesses, universities and government.

The third priority is strengthening domestic suppliers. Integrating 10,000 Vietnamese enterprises into global supply chains will require more than skilled labor. Domestic firms will also need improved access to capital, supply-chain finance, risk management tools and sustainability credentials to meet the standards of multinational corporations.

Barnsley concluded that while Viet Nam opened its doors to global investors four decades ago, Resolution No. 10 represents a new stage of development in which the country continues welcoming foreign investment while placing greater emphasis on building domestic capabilities and creating higher local value. In his view, this reflects the evolution of Viet Nam towards a more mature economy./.