Viet Nam boasts record-breaking growth in 2025: HSBC specialist

In an article released by Associate Director at Foreign Exchange (FX) HSBC Viet Nam Vu Binh Minh, 2025 marks another year in which Viet Nam has consistently met the majority of its macroeconomic targets established at the start of the year, ranging from robust economic growth to effective inflation control and various other key indicators,

Reflecting on the past twelve months, Viet Nam's achievements are particularly impressive given the significant headwinds the nation has faced, including shifting tariff landscapes, climate changes, and escalating global public debt.

Despite an uncertain trade environment, industrial production (IP) grew 10 percent year-on-year in the third quarter. This expansion was notably broad-based, extending well beyond industrial sector. The services sector continues to see strong growth thanks to the stellar performance in commercial services and tourism-related sectors.

Retail sales also saw meaningful improvements, jumping 12 percent in the third quarter. Meanwhile, tourism-related sectors, including transport and accommodation, are also seeing an ongoing boom as Viet Nam is seeing the return of tourists equivalent to 120 percent of 2019's level, leading ASEAN in tourism recovery.

Viet Nam's trade booming 

Coming back to the trade landscape, trade continues to boom with exports and imports both hitting close to 20 percent growth in the third quarter.

Viet Nam's trade surplus in the third quarter has more than doubled to US$3 billion, from the first half of the year, which brought the total trade balance to US$20.53 billion surplus for the first eleven months of the year.

Since the beginning of 2025, electronics products have exceeded light manufacturing to be the top exports to the U.S. market. The nation has elevated its importance in final electronics assembly, specializing in finished consumer electronics. This echoes Viet Nam's progress in climbing up the tech value chain, underlined the HSBC specialist.

While Viet Nam is concentrated in the lower-end of the tech supply chain, the elevated AI demand still has positive spillover impact, supporting computer and electronics components export growth. Besides consumer electronics, Viet Nam is also becoming increasingly important in producing processor ICs – a higher value-add segment than just electronics assembly.

Viet Nam's FDI performance paints a rosy picture as the country has been benefited handsomely from the FDI-driven export boom. While newly registered FDI has seen an 8 percent decline, adjusted capital and registered capital for capital contributions and share purchases increased by 17 percent and 50.7 percent respectively, bringing the total FDI inflows to US$33.69 billion, marking the highest level in the past five years.

Similarly, disbursed FDI in Viet Nam in the first eleven months of 2025 also reached its five-year high at US$23.6 billion, an 8.9 percent. Interestingly, the FDI composition paints a picture of shifting dynamics, with inflows from mainland China and the US picked up notably to partially offset the drop from other investors.

Key pillar for 2026

Regarding the economic prospects for 2026, the HSBC specialist suggested that Viet Nam should focus on boosting public investment. In particular, the focus on accelerating mega infrastructure projects has been a priority.

The country's public investment on infrastructure accounts for approximately 6-7 percent of GDP, significantly higher than other countries in the region. This remains a key growth driver for the economy. Given the rising external uncertainties coupled with ongoing global trade risks, the continuous focus on boosting public investment will be a vital pillar for growth.

This is particularly important for Viet Nam given its limited room for monetary easing but more fiscal flexibility due to its public-debt-to GDP ratio is at the lowest among ASEAN countries./.