HSBC raises Viet Nam 2025 GDP growth forecast to 7.9%
VGP - HSBC raised its 2025 gross domestic product growth forecast for Viet Nam to 7.9 percent, from its previous estimate of 6.6 percent.
In its latest update "Viet Nam at a glance," the international lender reported that Viet Nam achieved unexpected economic growth rate of 8.2 percent in Q3 after maintaining the strong growth momentum of Q2.
"While exports from other ASEAN countries to the U.S. have experienced a slight decline as the impact of earlier frontloading activities fades, Viet Nam's trade performance has remained strong with double-digit growth. Even more encouragingly, Viet Nam's retained trade surplus has more than doubled to US$3 billion in the third quarter compared with the first half of 2025," HSBC experts assessed.
It also raised its forecast for next year to 6.7 percent, from the previous 5.8 percent.
However, HSBC experts also cautioned that the biggest risk to growth lies in potential trade volatility.
Against the backdrop of inflation no longer posing a major concern, the State Bank of Viet Nam is targeting higher credit growth to support economic expansion.
As of late August, credit growth surged by 20 percent year-on-year, aligning well with the central bank's full-year target of 19–20 percent, which is higher than the original goal of 16 percent.
Despite mounting pressures from a trade protectionism policy spreading across the world, Viet Nam's economy recorded an impressive growth rate in the third quarter this year, with gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by 8.23 percent year-on-year.
The Ministry of Finance proposed a bold economic growth scenario of 8.3–8.5 percent for 2025, which was approved by Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh. This target is seen as achievable and essential to lay the groundwork for potential double-digit growth in the coming year.
Viet Nam is the only Southeast Asian economy that saw an improvement in its 2025 growth forecast to 6.7 percent from ADB's earlier April forecast of 6.6 percent.
Singapore's United Overseas Bank (UOB) also raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Viet Nam to 7.5 percent from 6.9 percent in its Global Economics & Markets Research unit./.
