Viet Nam potentially becomes Southeast Asia’s third-largest economy: Nikkei Asia
VGP - Viet Nam is on track to overtake Thailand in economic size measured by nominal GDP as soon as this year, helped by a major state-led infrastructure investment push that is accelerating growth, noted Nikkei Asia in a recent article.
The country's GDP growth accelerated to 8.02 percent in 2025, the second-highest rate in the 2011–2025 period, driven mainly by momentum from services and industrial production, the National Statistics Office reported.
With this figure, Viet Nam becomes the fastest-growing economy in Southeast Asia and in the world. This is a hard-won achievement amid continued global volatility, particularly trade tensions and the U.S. reciprocal tax policy.
In 2025, the nation's GDP at current prices is projected to reach US$514 billion, up US$38 billion compared to the previous year. GDP per capita is estimated at US$5,026, an increase of US$326 from 2024 (US$4,700), pushing Viet Nam into the upper-middle-income country group.
In 2026, Viet Nam targets to achieve an ambitious GDP growth goal of at least 10 percent, GDP per capita of US$5,400–5,500.
According to Nikkei Asia, if growth accelerates as planned, Viet Nam's nominal GDP could reach the mid-US$500 billion range in 2026 or 2027, overtaking Thailand and potentially becoming Southeast Asia's third-largest economy after Indonesia. GDP per head would also rise above US$5,000, approaching Indonesia's level.
The main driver is nationwide infrastructure development. Public investment plans for 2026 are expected to increase by about 26 percent, which could lift economic growth by 1.6 percentage points, according to Can Van Luc, chief economist at the state-owned Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV).
This is reflected in projects such as a new airport near Ho Chi Minh City due to open in 2026, while a China-backed rail project in the north has already begun construction.
Even so, legal reforms and cutting red tape are still seen as crucial to sustaining investment in the next phase. Can Van Luc said more than 2,000 investment projects remain held up by unresolved issues./.
