Viet Nam lifts birth restrictions to address demographic challenges
VGP - Married couples shall be allowed to decide the number of their children and the spacing between births from June 3, 2025, according to the latest Ordinance on population approved by the National Assembly Standing Committee on June 3.
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The new Ordinance aims to address disparities in fertility rates across different regions and demographic groups, and to avoid a decline in fertility below replacement level – a factor that could negatively affect sustainable economic, social, security, and defense development in the future.
The move marks a significant shift in Viet Nam’s population policy that aligns with the country's rapidly aging population and declining birth rates in many localities. This is considered a strategic adjustment that gives couples greater autonomy in family planning, while helping to maintain replacement-level fertility and ensure long-term demographic balance.
Health Minister Dao Hong Lan emphasized that this change empowers families to make decisions based on their owned circumstances, including age, health, education, work, income, and capacity to raise children—all grounded in the principle of equality.
While lifting the two-child limit is a significant policy shift, experts suggest that additional measures may be necessary to encourage higher birth rates. These could include financial incentives, improved childcare support, and workplace policies that promote work-life balance. Without such supportive measures, reversing the declining fertility trend may remain a challenge.
As of 2025, Viet Nam's total fertility rate (TFR) is estimated at approximately 1.91 children per woman, marking the third consecutive year below the replacement level of 2.1. This trend was particularly pronounced in urban areas like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, where high living costs and changing societal norms contributed to lower birth rates. The decline in fertility rates is attributed to various factors, including economic pressures, lifestyle choices and changing societal norms and career priorities as well as urbanization.
As of mid-2025, Viet Nam's population is estimated to be approximately 101.6 million, making it the 16th most populous country globally and the third most populous in Southeast Asia. The country entered this golden population period in 2007, and it is projected to continue until around 2038 to 2040, depending on various demographic factors. If current trends continue, Viet Nam is expected to transition into an aging population phase by the late 2030s, with the proportion of elderly individuals increasing significantly./.
