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Two economic growth scenarios amid COVID-19 outbreak

VGP – It is not easy for Viet Nam to achieve the preset goal of a 6.8% GDP growth rate this year due to a string of challenges, including the dual epidemics of Covid-19 and birth flu outbreaks.

02/13/2020 13:13

The Ministry of Planning and Investment (MoPI) has submitted a report on Covid-19 impacts on Viet Nam’s socio-economic development. 

The MoPI said that the preset goal of a 6.8% GDP growth rate would be a big task for Viet Nam in the context of droughts, saltwater intrusion, and dual epidemics of Covid-19 and birth flu outbreaks.

The report said that the epidemic develops quickly, seriously, and unexpectedly. So far, the country has yet forecast “peak virus”, ending time, scale, and range of impact.

The disease would cause comprehensive impacts on the economy. In addition, people’s psychology is being influenced especially the labor force, leading to immediate labor shortage and discontinuity of supply chains, sluggish trade circulation and production.

Against that backdrop, the ministry envisaged two scenarios of GDP growth. In the first scenario, the economy is expected to expand 6.25% this year if the epidemic is contained in the first quarter.

In the second scenario, the economy is projected to grow 5.96% this year if the epidemic is controlled in the second quarter.

To fulfill the preset goal of 6.8% for 2020, Viet Nam must attain outstanding growth rates of 4.52% in Q1; 6.66% in Q2; 7.67% in Q3; and 7.5% in Q4./. 

By Khanh Phuong