Standard Chartered raises Viet Nam’s 2024 GDP forecast to 6.8%
VGP - Standard Chartered Bank has revised up its forecast for Viet Nam’s 2024 GDP growth to 6.8 percent from the previous 6 percent, reflecting the stronger-than-expected expansion in the third quarter of the year.
In its recent macro-economic updates about Viet Nam, the bank said, growth is expected to moderate to 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter.
The bank maintains its 2025 forecast at 6.7 percent, with projected growth of 7.5 percent year-on-year in the first half and 6.1 percent year-on-year in the second half.
According to Standard Chartered, Viet Nam's economic growth momentum has been relatively strong, with improvement across multiple sectors, including imports and exports, retail sales, real estate, tourism, construction, and manufacturing.
Trade recovery, increased business activity, and foreign investment will be sources of growth in 2025 and beyond.
Tim Leelahaphan, economist for Thailand and Viet Nam, Standard Chartered Bank, said: "While we remain cautious on Viet Nam's economy near-term, we also acknowledge the economy's ability to perform better than market expectations.
The government's push for stronger economic growth may help maintain low interest rates in the near future, and Fed moves will also be key to the State Bank of Viet Nam's monetary policy decisions, he noted.
"We now expect a 50-basis point rate hike next year, rather than in the fourth quarter of 2024 as previously anticipated," added the economist.
The General Statistics Office (GSO) reported that in the first nine months, Viet Nam's economy expanded 6.82 percent year-on-year in the first nine months.
In the third quarter, the economy grew 7.4 percent year-on-year despite heavy impacts from super typhoon Yagi. The government will stay steadfast in development goals for 2024, striving to secure national GDP growth of above 7 percent./.
