Standard Chartered forecasts Viet Nam’s GDP in Q2 to moderate to 5.3%
VGP - Standard Chartered Bank forecast Viet Nam’s Q2 GDP growth to moderate to a still-strong 5.3 percent year-on-year, slowing from 5.7 percent in Q1.
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In the bank’s latest macro-economic updates about Viet Nam, Standard Chartered economists expects retail sales growth to ease to 8.2 percent year-on-year in June from 9.5 percent in May.
The bank predicted that export growth to ease to 14.2 percent year-on-year in June from 15.8 percent in May, and electronics exports to continue their year-to-date improvement.
Imports and industrial production are likely to grow 26 percent year-on-year and 5.2 percent in June, respectively, slowing from 29.9 percent and 8.9 percent in May.
Inflation may rise to 4.5 percent year-on-year in June from 4.4 percent in May, marking a third straight month above 4 percent.
Education, housing and construction materials, health care and food have driven inflation recently. This trend may continue in the coming months, the economists added.
“Despite the likely Q2 slowdown, we think Viet Nam’s recovery remains intact. However, economic challenges could persist in Q3 amid rising price pressures, forex weakness and soft global demand,” said Tim Leelahaphan, economist for Thailand and Viet Nam, Standard Chartered Bank.
In April, Standard Chartered Bank lowered Viet Nam's 2024 GDP growth forecast to 6 percent from 6.7 percent made in January due to lower-than-expected Q1 growth and global trade headwinds./.
