Standard Chartered forecasts Viet Nam’s GDP at 10.8% in Q3

Tim Leelahaphan, Standard Chartered's economist for Thailand and Viet Nam was quoted as saying that strong economic recovery has shown signals.  

The economist said that Viet Nam's economy will vigorously bounce back in the second half of this year especially when the tourism sector has reopened after a two-year shutdown.

He also predicted that the State Bank of Viet Nam will keep the interest rate at 4 percent this year to assist businesses and the recovery process despite growing inflation. 

Retail sales will continue improving strongly, with 30.2 percent growth in July, compared to 27.3 percent expansion in August.

Imports, exports and industrial production are predicted to respectively increase by 22.2 percent, 20 percent and 15 percent in July, compared to 20 percent, 16.3 percent and 11.5 percent in June.

Viet Nam is likely to record a trade deficit this month, they said. 

Inflation will accelerate to 3.6 percent in July from 3.4 percent in June - the fastest pace in two years, mostly due to supply pressure while demand is also gradually increasing, Leelahaphan noted, adding that inflation is still under control at present. 

Earlier, HSBC raised Viet Nam’s growth outlook this year to 6.9 percent from the previous prediction of 6.6 percent but also downgraded the forecast for 2023 to 6.3 percent from 6.7 percent.

In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) assessed that Viet Nam’s effective economic policies and impressive vaccination rollout hugely contribute to the country’s strategic shift towards living-with-COVID society and to the achievement of a 6 percent GDP in 2022.

Viet Nam’s economic growth forecast was also readjusted from 6.5 percent to 5.3 percent by the World Bank (WB)

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) sustained its growth forecast issued in mid-April, at 6.5 percent for 2022 and 6.7 percent for 2023.

The Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB) also raised the country’s 2022 GDP growth forecast to 7 percent from 6.5 percent, assuming no further severe domestic disruptions from COVID-19, and growth of around 7.6 percent - 7.8 percent in the second half of the year./.