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East Asia Forum: Prospects for Viet Nam’s economy in 2022 are good

VGP - Prospects for Viet Nam’s economy in 2022 are good. As factories and services approach normal, there will be a jump in output. Most projections are for 6–7 per cent real GDP growth.

February 15, 2022 10:42 AM GMT+7

East Asia Forum, a platform for analysis and research on politics, economics, business, law, security, international relations and society relevant to public policy, centred on the Asia Pacific region, released an article themed"Prospects and challenges for Viet Nam's economy in 2022". 

The article stated that tourism should start to recover from its over 95 per cent decline from 2019 levels. Exports should grow about 15 per cent and the trade balance will remain modestly positive. Inflation will remain low and the VND will continue to appreciate slightly against the US$. 

Despite factory closures, exports rose 19 per cent in 2021 to an astonishing US$336 billion while the high level of foreign direct investment (FDI) did not grow nor shrink much. The rapid increase in vaccinations-about 60 per cent fully vaccinated by early 2022-suggests that factory closures will be modest in 2022, noted the East Asia Forum. 

Viet Nam's GDP per capita in PPP terms exceeded US$11,000 per capita in 2021. This is a huge gain from 2000. 

Regarding challenges for Viet Nam, the article supposed that rising wages relative to productivity, pressures to reshore exports and falling tech ratings for its workers pose medium-term challenges for Viet Nam.