UOB upgrades Viet Nam’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 7.5%

The bank cited that the country's real GDP expanded by 8.46 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, accelerating from 8.25 percent in the third quarter. The robust performance was largely driven by resilient export activity and steady manufacturing despite the adverse impact of U.S. tariffs.

The fourth-quarter growth rate significantly exceeded Bloomberg's forecast of 7.7 percent as well as UOB's earlier projection of 7.2 percent, marking the fastest quarterly expansion since 2009, excluding the volatile period caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Exports continued to be the main engine of growth. In the fourth quarter of 2025, export turnover rose 19 percent year-on-year, while full-year exports increased 17 percent, despite tariff-related headwinds. The processing and manufacturing sector also posted solid gains, expanding 11.3 percent in the fourth quarter, compared to 10 percent a year earlier, lifting full-year growth in the sector to 10.5 percent.

Suan Teck Kin, Executive Director in Global Economics and Markets Research at UOB, said Viet Nam's economy demonstrated remarkable resilience in 2025. With GDP growth reaching 8 percent, Viet Nam enters 2026 on a strong footing.

However, UOB also cautioned about several downside risks to the outlook, including a high base effect, the possibility of export growth moderating after a period of rapid expansion, and prolonged uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies.

Viet Nam is considered a highly open economy and, therefore, vulnerable to external trade shocks. Exports of goods and services currently account for around 83 percent of GDP, the second-highest in ASEAN, after Singapore.

The U.S. remains Viet Nam's largest export market, accounting for about 30 percent of total exports in 2024, followed by China (15 percent) and South Korea (6 percent). Key export items to the U.S. include electronics, phones and components, furniture, footwear and garments, which together made up nearly 80 percent of Viet Nam's exports to that market.

Viet Nam's GDP growth accelerated to 8.02 percent in 2025, the second-highest rate in the 2011–2025 period, driven mainly by momentum from services and industrial production, the National Statistics Office reported.

With this figure, Viet Nam becomes the fastest-growing economy in Southeast Asia and in the world.

Viet Nam's foreign trade volume reached a record high of US$930.05 billion in 2025, representing a strong increase of 18.2 percent compared to the previous year./.