UOB revises up Viet Nam's 2024 GDP forecast to 6.4%

The revision is to account for the year-to-date performance and the disruptions to activities in early fourth quarter caused by Typhoon Yagi.

UOB's upward revision marked a turnaround as the bank late last month had cut its 2024 growth forecast for Viet Nam by 0.1 percentage point to 5.9 percent.

According to the General Statistics Office, Viet Nam's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by about 7.4 percent in the third quarter and 6.82 percent during the first nine months of 2024 compared to the respective periods of last year.

This was the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2022 when activities rebounded sharply from the trough of the pandemic. The surprise outcome of the third quarter reflected the resilience of the economy, despite the devastation from the by deadly typhoon Yagi, the bank said.

The UOB researchers commented that both the manufacturing and services sectors continued to be the main drivers of business activities, while external trade maintained its strong pace in the third quarter of 2024.

The upswing in semiconductor sales since mid-2023 suggests that the momentum will likely be sustained in the one to two quarters ahead, they added.

They kept their growth forecast for 2025 unchanged at 6.6 percent, reflecting an expected ramp-up in output early next year to compensate for the earlier losses as a result of Typhoon Yagi, as well as spillover effects from U.S. Fed's policy easing and China's stimulus measures./.