ADB lifts Viet Nam’s growth forecast to 7.4 percent in 2025

In its latest Asian Development Outlook, ADB upgrades growth forecast for developing economies in Asia and the Pacific by 0.3 percentage points to 5.1 percent.

The regional upgrade comes as exports outperform expectations and trade uncertainty eases following the conclusion of several trade agreements with the U.S. 

The ADB report highlights that robust exports—especially of semiconductors and other technology products—together with cooling inflation and stable financial conditions, have strengthened the region's overall growth prospects.

Developing Asia is now expected to expand 5.1 percent in 2025, higher than the 4.8 percent projected in September, while the 2026 outlook has been nudged up to 4.6 percent.

"Asia and the Pacific's solid economic fundamentals are underpinning robust export performance and steady growth, despite a global trade environment clouded by historic levels of uncertainty over the past year," said ADB Chief Economist Albert Park.

He noted that although new trade agreements have helped ease some uncertainty, "external and other challenges could still weigh on the outlook." The chief economist called on governments across the region to continue fostering open trade and investment to sustain growth momentum.

ADB cautioned that risks to the region include renewed trade tensions, financial market volatility, geopolitical strains, and the possibility of a deeper-than-expected downturn in China's property sector.

HSBC recently upgraded Viet Nam’s 2025 and 2026 growth forecast to 7.9 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively, the highest in ASEAN. UOB raised Viet Nam's growth forecast to 7.7 percent in 2025, while Standard Chartered predicted that the Vietnamese GDP growth would accelerate to 7.5 percent in 2025 and 7.2 percent in 2026./.