ADB keeps Viet Nam’s growth forecast unchanged, highest in Southeast Asia

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has maintained its growth forecast for Viet Nam, projecting that the country will remain the fastest-growing economy in Southeast Asia, with GDP growth of 7.2 percent in 2026 and 7.0 percent in 2027, according to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2026 report.

Viet Nam's positive outlook is underpinned by sustained growth in the manufacturing sector, resilient exports and investment, and steady domestic demand.

Viet Nam's growth projections are among the highest in developing Asia and the Pacific, where economic growth is forecast at 4.9 percent in 2026, down from the ADB's 5.1 percent forecast in April due to the downside risks stem primarily from prolonged disruptions in energy market caused by the conflict in the Middle East.  

For 2027, ADB raised its regional growth forecast to 5.1 percent, up from 4.8 percent in its late-April update and matching its April projection.

The ADB warned of significant downside risks to the regional growth outlook, including a renewed escalation of geopolitical conflicts, prolonged uncertainty in energy markets, tighter global financial conditions, a re-pricing of AI-related stocks, and a deeper property market downturn in China.

Regional inflation is projected to accelerate to 4.6 percent in 2026, compared with the ADB's 3.6 percent forecast in April, though lower than the 5.2 percent projection in the late-April update. Inflation is expected to ease to 3.4 percent in 2027./.