Two scenarios for Vietnamese economy in 2023
VGP - The Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) has envisaged out two scenarios for the Vietnamese economy in 2023 after the country recorded an 8 percent growth rate in 2022.
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According to CIEM, Viet Nam’s economic outlook in 2023 may be influenced by more factors than the previous years.
These factors include degree of monetary tightening in major economies to handle inflationary pressures, and rising geographical competition and Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Other factors are the country’s capacity to control the spread of coronavirus variants and new diseases, progress in implementing the national socio-economic recovery and development program, introduction of more financial and monetary policies to support economic recovery, diversification of export markets.
Given the above factors, in the first scenario, the national economy is likely to expand by 6.47 percent over the entire year, with export turnover increasing by 7.21 percent, and inflation to be kept at 4.08 percent, while trade surplus is anticipated to reach US$5.64 billion.
In the second scenario, the national economy is likely to grow by 6.83 percent, with export growth accelerating to 8.43 percent, and inflation to be controlled at 3.69 percent, while the trade surplus is projected at US$8.15 billion.
Viet Nam’s economy expanded 8.02 percent in 2022, the highest growth rate recorded during the 2011-2022 period, according to the General Statistics Office.
As Viet Nam's GDP growth is strong, the inflation and other factors affecting Viet Nam's economy are much less severe than what is going on in neighboring countries and other nations around the region, said Andrew Jeffries, Country Director of the Asian Development Bank in Viet Nam
Singapore's United Overseas Bank (UOB) forecast Viet Nam's GDP growth for 2023 at 6.6 percent in its report on Viet Nam's economic growth in the last quarter of 2022 and prospect for 2023./.
